Developed Uses

Urban and developed areas are projected to continue to grow substantially in line with the projected population increase of more than 120 million people over the next 50 years (Alig and others 2004). This will be part of a global increase in population, as the world’s population is projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion by 2050. U.S. developed area is projected to increase by 79 percent, raising the proportion of the total land base that is developed from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent. Projections based upon Census Bureau data indicate similar substantial increases in urban area. Urban land in the United States is projected to increase from 3.1 percent in 2000 to 8.1 percent in 2050, an area of about 97 million acres, which is larger than the state of Montana. Most of the urban growth is projected to occur around the more heavily urbanized areas, with significant expansion in the East and along the west coast.

Population and income pressures on land uses are not uniform across the Nation. For example, population has shifted from the North to the South and the West in recent decades. Because much of the growth is expected in sensitive areas already burdened by anthropogenic impacts, such as some coastal counties, implications for landscape and urban planning include potential impacts on sensitive watersheds, riparian areas, wildlife habitat, and water supplies. Although providing additional living space and infrastructure, added development may also diminish agricultural output by reducing farmland and changing ecological conditions by converting and fragmenting forests and other natural landscapes. The projected developed and built-up area of about 175 million acres in 2025 represents an area equal to 38 percent of the current United States cropland base, or 23 percent of the current United States forestland base. In line with recent historical trends, the South is projected to continue to have the most developed area through 2025 (Alig and others 2004).