Projections

Projections from different studies, (e.g., Resources Planning Act Assessments) are summarized next and compared where appropriate. Land use projections are generally prepared by obtaining projections of the independent variables and then simulating the impacts of projected conditions on future land uses (Table: Sources of land-use projections). Projections can be implemented to contrast the potential effects of policy or market changes with historical usage (counterfactual simulations, e.g., Lubowski and others 2006) or to project future land uses over a range of scenarios (e.g., Alig and others 2003). Projection exercises have indicated that future land uses are especially sensitive to changes in population density, income, and agricultural and timber prices and production costs.