Decision Support: Summary and Conclusions

We have come a long way in the application of information technology to natural resource management, although much of this progress has occurred relatively recently. Wide-spread use of information systems in natural resource management had to await the introduction of the microcomputer and the evolution of high quality and user friendly word-processing systems in the mid-1980's. At that time, word-processing systems became the first knowledge management tool widely used in natural resource management. Although quantitative simulation models for natural resource management applications had been developed as early as the 1960's for mainframe computers, these were primarily research tools and not widely used. Once again, it took the availability of inexpensive microcomputers to make forest growth and yield projection systems, as well as other simulation models, commonly used tools in natural resource management. The advent of the Internet as a generally available information technology is even more recent.

Despite these recent advances, many significant aspects of available information technology have not yet been adopted by natural resource managers. The recognition that natural resource management is a knowledge intensive activity and that knowledge is the pivotal commodity is not widespread. Well-organized and maintained hypertext encyclopedias of knowledge are still a novelty. Knowledge-based advisory systems are a little more common, but still not widely used. Full-service natural resource management decision support systems are still in the development stage and have yet to prove their worth in practical natural resource management applications.

Over the next decade, we look forward to increased availability and popularity for the entire gamut of knowledge management and application tools. First, Internet-based hypertext encyclopedias of knowledge will be developed and tested. We expect a gradual shift in the delivery of scientific information from paper-based journals to fully synthesized, web-based hypertext systems. Figuring out how to finance these ventures and make them profitable will be a key breakthrough. Second, full-service decision support systems for significantly larger, more complex problems will become commonplace. This development awaits the arrival of a simple and effective way to allow independently developed software to work together to solve a joint problem. Recent advances in such software communication standards look promising. We also need to design and test flexible and practical decision analysis processes that are easy to understand by the general public. Once again, recent research in testing such decision analysis processes in conjunction with decision support for natural resources management looks promising.