Decision Making under Risk: Risk Management Theory and Applications from Various Disciplines
Shefali V. Mehta, Robert G. Haight, and Frances R. Homans
University of
Invasive species management relies considerably on assessing and managing risk. This arises from the inherent uncertainty of the invasion process, or the population dynamics of the invasive species. Managers face a daunting task as they incorporate the dynamic, spatial and stochastic aspects of invasive species into their decision making process. Numerous researchers have analyzed various components of risk and invasive species. Owing to the breadth of the issue, experts from many disciplines, including ecology, biology, economics, statistics and policy, have contributed to this extensive body of literature. This synthesis attempts to provide a comprehensive review and comparison the theory, evidence and application of risk analysis and invasive species management.
By its nature, risk analysis is the study of uncertainty and the attempt to qualify it, whether qualitatively or quantitatively. The uncertainty contributes to the lack of empirical evidence. In lieu of data, risk analysis literature often involves theory and numerical simulations. Additionally, the various disciplines propose different theories and applications. Understanding and reducing risk entails the study of these varied approaches and their interactions. Analyzing the interaction of ecological and biological knowledge, statistical analysis, and the allocation of limited resources, precipitates an understanding of risk analysis and its applications. However, the scope of this issue necessitates a narrower focus of risk analysis for invasive species.
Risk assessment and risk management are two different aspects of addressing risk. Often, these two are closely entwined. While this synthesis is not about risk assessment per se, the reliance of decision makers on risk assessment and its outcomes demands the inclusion of some aspects of risk assessment. As such, this synthesis discusses the major risk assessment outcomes and the methods for integrating risk assessment into the framework used by decision makers to mitigate risk.
This diverse literature requires a cohesive synthesis to unify these approaches. The invasion process provides a clear framework to present this synthesis. While the stages of the invasion process can be characterized in many ways, a widely accepted categorization divides the process into three main stages: introduction, establishment and spread. The accompanying management decisions are grouped into three main categories: exclusion, detection and management. Even though agencies engage in additional activities, these categories provide an adequate system with which to examine the decisions facing managers. Thus, the synthesis is arranged according to the chronological order of the stages of the invasion process. This provides an insightful comparison of the different approaches and applications of risk management at each stage. It also provides a sense of how these methods can be integrated to achieve effective outcomes.
For each invasion stage, the synthesis presents the key factors contributing to a species’ successful advance to each stage. These factors are determined by risk assessment using a variety of methods. The methods themselves are not explicitly discussed, but the relevant outcomes of the risk assessment are included. The synthesis then discusses the methods for incorporating the identified risk factors into a decision model for risk management. While the theory behind the risk management models is discussed, the emphasis is on the potential outcomes. After covering the simulated and empirical evidence, extant policies and applications are presented to illustrate the efficacy, or lack of, in the applications of the risk management theory and practices.
The dynamic nature of the invasion process frequently forces these management decisions to be taken simultaneously. Existing literature often analyzes the relationship between the management choices. Economics literature, for example, considers the optimal allocation between exclusion and management activities for the same species. The synthesis also integrates this literature into the framework; it provides the theory, and when available, the empirical evidence and applications of the theory.
By collecting and integrating the various approaches to risk management, this synthesis attempts to provide an in-depth review and comparison of current theory and its effective applications. Through the juxtaposition of various approaches, the synthesis also hopes to motivate further applications based on merging different strategies.
corresponding author:
Shefali V. Mehta
Department of Applied Economics
University of Minnesota
218d Classroom Office Building
1994 Buford Avenue
St. Paul, MN 55108
612-625-7242
meht0038@umn.edu
Encyclopedia ID: p129
